Govt, BOJ Must Do More To Fix Econ: Feldman, Kanno
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Japanese government and Bank of Japan must take further steps to revive the economy and end deflation, said two leading Tokyo-based economists at the first English-language Nikkei.com Seminar in Tokyo Friday evening.
Robert Feldman, director of the economic research department at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., said the combination of monetary, fiscal and structural policies is important. He said that the BOJ's new measures, announced Oct. 5, are insufficient to end deflation, and that the additional 5 trillion yen (60.9 billion dollar) expansion of the emergency fund has to be 10 times larger.
He concluded the central bank alone cannot solve the problem and said, "We need a much more aggressive structural reform policy, much more aggressive fiscal reform policy."
Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Japan Co., agreed that the BOJ has "no tool to overcome deflation."
But he called the creation of the emergency fund to purchase financial assets a "unique decision," and said the central bank is trying "not to directly affect demand but rather to affect asset prices." He pointed out that the continuing fall in asset prices, especially land prices, over the past 20 years is the main problem with the Japanese economy.
Kanno warned, however, that the BOJ policy is "creating a new bubble" in the Japanese government bond market and holding the bonds can be "very risky."
Strong yen a strength
As for the yen's strength relative to the dollar, Kanno showed a chart of the real effective exchange rates of the dollar, euro and yen since 1980 and explained that the three currencies are now close to a historically neutral level.
"The price of a (McDonald's) Big Mac in Tokyo, New York and Paris is the same," he said.
He said that because the yen's strength will help Japanese companies expand business globally, "it can be a trigger to change the Japanese export-oriented business model."
Meanwhile, Feldman was critical of the new 5.05 trillion yen economic stimulus package.
"This type of package is exactly what the LDP did all the time," he said, referring to similar packages introduced in the 1990s.
He called for a "much more aggressive structural policy" and said the money being spent on the growth strategy, including to raise productivity in the agricultural sector, is "very little."
Kanno said that to improve efficiency, competition of a global standard is needed within Japan, citing the country's nine electric companies. He said that by allowing foreign firms to compete in Japan, "we will have a different type of competition and easily see the winners and losers (in the market)."
The two economists discussed various issues with the some 70 mostly non-Japanese participants of a wide range of occupations.
On the question of how many immigrants should be allowed into Japan, Feldman said 10 million could be the minimum over the next 15 to 20 years. He said Chinese and Indian nationals are the two most successful immigrant groups in Japan.
Kanno said immigrants will be needed in several fields, citing the urgent need for care workers to look after the elderly.
He joked that good-looking foreigners could be the answer to Japan's low birth rate.
Lecturer

Dr. Robert Alan Feldman
Director of Economic Research Department in Japan / Managing Director Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.
As part of Morgan Stanley’s global economics team, Dr. Feldman is responsible for forecasting the Japanese economy, financial markets and policy developments. He is member of several economic study committees of various ministries of the Japanese government, and is a commissioner of the Japan-US Friendship Commission. He is also a regular commentator on World Business Satellite, the nightly business program of TV Tokyo. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1998, Robert was the chief economist for Japan for Salomon Brothers from 1990-97. He worked for the International Monetary Fund from 1983-89, in the Asian, European, and Research Departments.
Robert has a Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he concentrated on international finance and development. He did his undergraduate work at Yale University, where he took BAs in both Economics and in Japanese Studies, graduating phi beta kappa, summa cum laude. Before he entered graduate school, he worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Chase Manhattan Bank.
Mr. Masaaki Kanno
Managing Director and Chief Economist J.P.Morgan
Mr.Kanno joined J.P. Morgan in April 1999. Prior to joining J.P.Morgan, he was an Associate Director at the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan, where he worked since 1974. His career at the Bank included serving as the Bank’s Deputy Chief Representative in Europe, secretary to the Governor in charge of Diet issues and Chief FX Trader in the International Department as well as secondment to the Japan Center for Economic Research as a Senior Economist.
Mr. Kanno received a BA in Economics from the University of Tokyo in 1974 and an MA in Economics from the University of Chicago in 1979.
About NIKKEI.com Seminar
In celebration of the first anniversary of NIKKEI.com, Nikkei held the first NIKKEI.com Seminar in March 2010. The Seminar comprises of business lectures providing expertise and guidance of how to utilize NIKKEI.com for maximum effectiveness, and a social gathering for Seminar participants, we try to make NIKKEI.com known outside. NIKKEI.com seminars are planned to be held once every few months. In the first Seminar, we invited those who work in public relations sections of companies in Japan. We hope that foreign residents in Japan and individual users will participate in the NIKKEI.com Seminar in the future.
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NIKKEI.com is a full-scale news service offering more coverage on Japan and Asia which shook up Nikkei Net Interactive to make a fresh start in March 2009. From the latest market-moving data to accurate and exhaustive corporate news coverage, NIKKEI.com gives you about 150 articles from The Nikkei, The Nikkei Business Daily, and The Nikkei MJ (Marketing Journal) every day, translated by specialized staff based in Japan and the U.S..

